Both categories declined in volume in 2025, but spirits' more moderate volume decline (-3%) was sufficient for it to surpass wine volume (-5%).
No-alcohol beer was the second-largest subcategory of beer by volume in 2025 and is expected to double its share of the global beer market by volume from 2% in 2025 to 4% by 2033.
The forecast is part of IWSR’s annual global data release, published today (11 June), which includes confirmed 2025 consumption data and IWSR’s first ten-year forecast for the 160 national markets it monitors.
The forecast also revealed that global beverage alcohol consumption volume will decline for a further six years before resuming growth in 2031.
Following these declines to 2031, global volume is forecast to recover almost all of its 2025 level by 2035, amounting to a -1% total volume decline over the decade.
This stabilisation in global volume from 2031 will be driven by two main factors, a substantial rebalancing of the global market, and continued growth in the worldwide drinking age population.
Marten Lodewijks, president and managing director of IWSR, said: “The forecast stabilisation in global beverage alcohol volumes is good news for the industry, but there are still plenty of challenges ahead. 2035 will be a vastly different market landscape than the one we see today, and producers will need to cater to changing consumer tastes in established markets as well as prepare for significant changes in where consumption is taking place. Companies that only rely on past successes to carry them through the next decade will face serious challenges.”
The forecast also found that over the next decade, the global beverage alcohol market will shift away from China, North America and Europe to India, South America and Africa.
This is most clearly illustrated by looking at consumption by servings, measured as 330ml for beer, RTDs, and cider, 150ml for wine and 50ml for spirits.
The number of beverage alcohol servings consumed in China in 2035 is forecast to be -19% lower than 2025. Other large declines in total beverage servings consumed over the same period are the US (-18%), Japan (-15%), Germany (-14%), and the UK (-13%).
Meanwhile, servings consumed annually from 2025 to 2035 are forecast to surge in Mexico (+13%), Vietnam (+15%), Colombia (+26%) and India (+38%).
When measured by servings, India is forecast to surpass the US in 2032 to become the second largest market for beverage alcohol in the world after China.
Moderation will continue to be a growing trend over the next decade, with global annual per capita litres of pure alcohol forecast to drop half a litre by 2035, approximately equivalent to two bottles of spirits or a case of wine per person per year.
Meanwhile, the population of legal drinking age consumers is forecast to grow by 9% over the same period. This growth in consumer numbers is sufficient to bring total global volume in 2035 to just -1% lower than 2025 volume.
At the category level, beer volume reflects the broader beverage alcohol trend by declining globally from 2025 to 2035 by -1%.
Global wine volume is forecast to drop by -14%, while global spirits consumption is forecast to lose -2% volume.
RTDs will continue to see strong growth, with +17% volume forecast for the next decade.
Luke Tegner, IWSR head of consulting, added: “In 2025, consumers continued seeking flavour exploration, convenience and ABV diversity to suit their consumption occasions. This is driving a shift in consumption away from more established categories like wine and spirits to RTDs. Global RTD consumption reached 1 billion 9 litre cases for the first time in 2025, and there is no sign of this trend abating anytime soon.”
IWSR has also released confirmed 2025 data for all 160 markets it tracks.
From 2024 to 2025, global total beverage alcohol volume declined by -2%. Among major categories over the same period, global beer volume declined -2%, global wine volume was down -5%, and global spirits volume lost -3%.
The volume of RTDs consumed globally grew +3%.
At the national level, 66 of the 165 markets tracked by IWSR in 2025 saw the number of servings of beverage alcohol consumed grow from 2024 levels. 83 markets saw declines, and 12 markets remained flat (0% change).
China saw a -7% drop in servings consumed during 2025. The US saw a -4% decline in servings, Germany experienced a -5% drop in servings, and the UK saw servings decline -2%.
The largest markets that experienced growth were India (+4% servings), Colombia (+4% servings), and South Africa (+1% servings).
In addition, several subcategories saw growth in 2025. No alcohol beer grew +8% by volume, Indian whisky grew +4% by volume, Stout was up +4% by volume, RTD cocktails were up +14% by volume and Soju outside of Korea grew +9% by volume.
